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 Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2

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fweaks
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:17 am

orange wrote:
But Lightning rod? With [9] able to shoot [1]... that doesn't fit.

That's what I said.

Oh and I suppose we're now left with [4] and [5] as you and happy.

Happy wrote:
Are there details about your role that deviate from this description; or have you not been given specifics; or do you choose to withhold this information?

I'm always witholding information. Just take that as a given. You already said why.
This time most of it is publicly inferable.

Also, This game is reminiscent of your game. But I think I can be fairly certain in saying thats all. It is not the same game as yours, the mechanics are not identical, nor are the mafia.

Possible mafia team configurations include: {1 team, 2 players}, {1 team 3 players}, {2 teams 1 player each}, {2 teams 1 player and 2 players}, {3 teams, 1 player each}

Of those, the most likely are the 1st and 3rd.

The wounding may result in death later but I find it unlikely that he's ported that part. The link to losing night actions seems sufficient.

Happy wrote:
Mafia practically know who the remaining redirectors are.

Well, yeah. Pretty much everyone in one form or another. They may have their own too.




Iiiiiin any case. lets get this bandwagon rolling. Lynch mattgoku

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:58 am

Much complicated, such confusion, sort of glad I'm dead after trying to make sense of all that Shocked
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:28 am

fweaks wrote:
I'm always witholding information. Just take that as a given. You already said why.
This time most of it is publicly inferable.

Oh for sure, but I mean keeping in mind with our given facts your roleclaim is essentially entirely bunk. If we didn't already have some fairly quality leads, you'd be first on my sideeye list!

As for parallels between this and mines (*lack thereof), I considered as much, but occam's razor more or less leads me to conclude my initial statements in particular are solid. We're free to agree to disagree on this front I suppose. If anything changes on future nights I'm happy to revoke things!

Shu wrote:
Much complicated, such confusion, sort of glad I'm dead after trying to make sense of all that Shocked

[pats you on back]
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:01 am

Well good thing I've supported everything I've said already isn't it. Now are you going to follow this solid lead or not

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:36 am

Hahaha sigh sigh ==

I'm waiting on everyone to have posted first because oftentimes I do feel like it changes things
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:03 am

WOAH I GO TO SLEEP AND NOW THERE'S WALL OF TEXT GALORE! XD

Oookay, so I haven't fully processed this yet, but figure it'd be good to chuck in my thoughts. Okay, so here's what I did last night: I redirected from fweaks to Hiroshi (SORRY! Didn't mean for you to get hurt!). Because of this, I'm inclined to believe orange, as that matches up to what happened in the night. (ie 2 actions going towards Hiro).

What Skrill said about redirecting towards Mattgoku also seems legit, but I'll hold off on the lynch a bit longer to see what other people have to say.

If what Skrill claims is true, then here's what's possibly up: Matt is clearly scum with a killing role. Oless is also scum with a killing role. Fweaks is obviously a liar, so scum of some sort (but may or may not have a killing role).

So here's my crazy theory:
Matt and fweaks are on a mafia team together. Thinking they were the only mafia in play, fweaks claimed lightning rod, and matt directed his kill towards fweaks. Because of this claim, heaps of people redirected from fweaks, which would've made his claim legit. But because there's another killing role (whether they're acting alone or not), that screwed their plan... It's the only thing that really makes a false lightning rod claim make sense.
...THAT, or Jonno is a Jester and looking for the fastest way to get lynched XD (Jester = win if they get lynched, btw Smile)
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:06 am

If no-one counter claims Skrill, then we should probably lynch Mattgoku this day phase. Oless is wounded, so hopefully that means he won't be able to get a kill in next night, so Matt is the more dangerous one right now...

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:18 am

Lynch Update



8 alive, 5 to lynch.

Votes
mattgoku - 1 vote from {fweaks}


No Shows
Looks like everyone (except mattgoku) has at least logged in in the last 24 hours. Good work guys.

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:09 am

I second the motion to lynch mattgoku.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:11 am

Skrillaka wrote:
I second the motion to lynch mattgoku.

Is that a vote? Please bold votes so I can be sure it's not just a statement.

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:42 am

Right, sorry.

Lynch mattgoku
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:20 pm

Damn man, I got to work to read all this because looking on my phone was too painful, and here I am with 2.5 pages to read through an analyse. @_@

Sorry I missed day 0, I don't have a computer at home at the moment and I was thinking I'd get my laptop back before it ended. My bad  Embarassed

So just to recap, assuming all of the claims so far are true and knowing that I redirected from Fweaks to Oless:
1: Shu(?) - because he's dead
2: Matt(Killer) - because Skrillaka redirected from Fweaks (6) to Matt, who didn't get wounded
3: Slushee(Redirector) - claimed by Orange.
4: Happy(?)
5: Orange(Redirector)
6: Fweaks(Lightning rod) - source of two redirects, claimed by Skrillaka and Slushee.
7: Hiroshi(Redirector) - target of two redirects, claimed by Slushee and Orange (dammit Slushee! xD )
8: Skrillaka(Redirector) - because he got wounded and Matt didn't. Redirector
9: Oless(Killer) - because that's the last space for a wounded person

It's worth noting that we know of 5 redirections and 2 kill actions (if our understanding of the diagram is correct) for a total of 7 night actions we know about, so that leaves two people with no discernible action. Those are either plain townie (unlikely), mafia with no killing action (if there is a godfather figure or if only one mafia does the killing, very possible), actions not shown on the diagram (possible, but seems kinda unlikely to me since the diagram shows everything else) or passive abilities.

If no one is counter claiming anything we should all vote Matt since the chance of Shu being the one who redirected to Matt instead of Skrillaka is serendipitous levels of unlikely for the mafia and they probably wouldn't risk that kind of claim. After that I find Happy to be the most suspicious since she hasn't claimed anything in this highly deductive game.

Thee_Slushee wrote:

So here's my crazy theory:
Matt and fweaks are on a mafia team together. Thinking they were the only mafia in play, fweaks claimed lightning rod, and matt directed his kill towards fweaks. Because of this claim, heaps of people redirected from fweaks, which would've made his claim legit. But because there's another killing role (whether they're acting alone or not), that screwed their plan... It's the only thing that really makes a false lightning rod claim make sense.
...THAT, or Jonno is a Jester and looking for the fastest way to get lynched XD (Jester = win if they get lynched, btw Smile)

The thing I don't understand is, why would Fweaks roleclaim lightning rod on day 0? That's like, the dumbest ploy ever because it's so easy to be shown fake, UNLESS there really is some kind of roleblocker thing going on or bastard modding. I'm not inclined to believe that Screaming would bastard mod that much, and as for roleblocker:

  • Roleblocking isn't shown on our diagram
  • Why would a roleblocker block the lightning rod? That's pretty much asking for trouble. Unless it's a mafia roleblocker
  • Why wasn't roleblocking redirected away from Fweaks? And then do you get partial role blocking?? I just don't see how roleblocker would work in this kind of game

So pretty much, there is no roleblocker unless this game is to the max.
End result: Fweaks is most probably lying. But that doesn't mean he's mafia, it just makes him super suspect; he could be trying to misguide the mafia or something I dunno. It is possible he thought it was safe because we didn't know there would be a diagram to ruin the ploy so much buuut that's still kinda silly. There is room in the role allocations we know about for a passive role like lightning rod, so I'm gonna roll with it for now.


PS. I believe this is the original rules thing we used to use: http://mikeburnfire.deviantart.com/art/Mafia-Roles-72597749
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 7:54 pm

Ah yes that's it. Well it's the flash itself at least. Awesome Very Happy

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Wed Jan 14, 2015 8:04 pm

As a simple observation, I expect we will see three redirections tonight. There were five to begin with, assuming all of them used their action, and two were wounded (Hiro and me, apparently), so that leaves three left.
Just in case anyone thinks that will be important.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:53 am

Thee_Slushee wrote:
So here's my crazy theory:
Matt and fweaks are on a mafia team together. Thinking they were the only mafia in play, fweaks claimed lightning rod, and matt directed his kill towards fweaks.

Haha I can believe this.. it's the sort of thing jonno would orchestrate ==
I have some more theories on top of this but I'll leave it for next day phase so I don't disrupt today's flow haha.

Hiroshi wrote:
After that I find Happy to be the most suspicious since she hasn't claimed anything in this highly deductive game.

[extremely arrogantly brings this up from your entire post to reply to]
I thought I would hold off on claiming to see if it brought up any new information, and it has, but it doesn't help anybody except me so I don't think I like this sort of playstyle anymore XD
I know this is super unbelievable but right now is not a useful time for me to roleclaim! Anything I can add the diagram has in a sense already been said.
It turns out now that I've gotten myself into this precise situation there's not a single move I can make that doesn't look ultra suspo or end badly XD So I won't expect people's trust at this moment but be assured I will try to regain it eventually!

Actually case in point is that we have one vote left to kick off matt, right.. I don't want to be the hammer because after vocally not-voting him, that is more suspicious right ¯\( シ)/¯ BUT then if I never vote I look like I'm trying to save him right == Really I'm just sitting a bit longer to see if he or oless/daniel post before lynchy.. I feel like they deserve that much in this game we are playing for enjoyment and engagement.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:01 am

ScreamingHawk wrote:
No Shows
Looks like everyone (except mattgoku) has at least logged in in the last 24 hours. Good work guys. [/color]

Also, thank you for this new and unprecedented addendum, I like it
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:26 am

Lynch Update



8 alive, 5 to lynch.

Votes
mattgoku - 3 votes from {fweaks, Skrillaka, Hiroshi}

No Shows
Looks like everyone has at least logged in in the last 24 hours. Good work guys.

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:38 am

Lol I thought we didn't have an almost lynch just yet, and mod's lynch update confirms this... I feel like at this point, Mattgoku is pretty much confirmed guilty to me, so think I'll just make it official, and put the pressure on someone else to be lynch hammer Razz

Vote Mattgoku

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:46 pm

Ok everyone. Sorry about not posting, been busy as balls. I'll word vomit me thoughts now, YAY.

So the 2 claims made have been (according to the numbers you guys are assigning):
(1) skrilaka: fweaks [6] to mattgoku [2].
(2) orange: thee_slushee [3] to hiroshi [7].
(3) thee_slushee: fweaks [6] to hiroshi [7].
Leaving 2 more unclaimed:
(4) fweaks [6] to me [9].
(5) matt [2] to skrilaka [8].

Too much of our understanding of what occurred during night 1 is dependent on (1), which could be a lie; [2] could just as easily be happy, orange, or slushee.

So with 5 redirections and 2 killing thingies, that leaves what 2 actions unaccounted for.
That suggests one of 3 possible states:
(i) theres 4 mafia, 2 teams of 2,
(ii) or 2 mafia and 1 killing role (or independent mafia team),
(iii) or lastly that jono is something... else (because his lightning rod claim makes zero sense to me - but thats to me, something else could be going on).

Theres also the possibility that there were 6 redirections, with 2 of them doubling up, which MAY not have shown up in the diagram.

My opinion of whats going on, is (i) that there are 2 teams of mafia, 4 individual mafia in total. I'm just not sure who.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:47 pm

I'm not following a few things though so thought i'd ask:
(a) Why are we saying mattgoku had a kill? What are the reasons beyond, skrilaka claiming the redirection? Fweaks initiated the lynch vote but I'm not following the rationale... Especially since i trust nothing that comes out of fweaks, because of the lightning rod claim which doesn't make sense.
(b) Would shu's redirection have counted? whats the priority in this? I'm assuming it did count (because thats what I usually play), but I wanted to make sure, since this is only my second forum mafia game.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:14 pm

Nice to meet you Oless. Smile I'm Geoff, just in case anyone uses my name.

oless wrote:
Leaving 2 more unclaimed:
(4) fweaks [6] to me [9].
Nope, that was me.

I agree that the premise of everyone so far telling the truth is sketchy, but no one has counter claimed anything and it all fits with the diagram so it's the best we've got to go on.

If we believe Skrillaka, and we have no reason not to, then Matt is the only person who was redirected towards who didn't get hurt. Only one such person exists on the diagram, which is number 2, who had a killing action. Simple. Smile

You, Skill and I are wounded. I must be number 7 because two people redirected towards me. I redirected from Fweaks to you, and you were wounded (end of the killing action line) so you must be number 9. That leaves Skrillaka being number 8 even though no one has claimed the redirect from Mattgoku to Skrillaka (it was possibly Shu, who can't confirm for us now).
Ergo, you have(/had) a killing action. Since you made no roleclaim in your posts, not even to claim that you're a vigilante (there would be no downside in revealing yourself since you're wounded anyway) or to counter-claim Skrillaka or someone else, as I see it the chances are high that you're a serial killer or mafia.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:23 pm

Lynch Update



8 alive, 5 to lynch.

Votes
mattgoku - 1 vote to lynch! - 4 votes from {fweaks, Skrillaka, Hiroshi, Thee_Slushee}

Deadline
Deadline is Saturday morning, whenever I happen to wake up. Unless a lynch is reached before then.

No Shows
Looks like everyone except Shu (Rest in Peace) and mattgoku has at least logged in in the last 24 hours. Keep it up team.

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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:29 pm

Hm, I was hoping mattgoku would say something before I cast a vote.
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:31 pm

Hammertime?
Vote mattgoku
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PostSubject: Re: Mafia #24 Magnet Mafia - Night 2   Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:46 pm

Quote :
Ergo, you have(/had) a killing action. Since you made no roleclaim in your posts, not even to claim that you're a vigilante (there would be no downside in revealing yourself since you're wounded anyway) or to counter-claim Skrillaka or someone else, as I see it the chances are high that you're a serial killer or mafia.

I didn't role claim anything because making a point about how we shouldn't just believe what everyone says would be contradicted by me saying 'i did this. trust me'.

The way I see it, I don't think anybody would counter-claim because it would just shift suspicion onto themselves. At this point counter-claiming would just turn into a 'your word against mine' arguement that just shifts focus. It's only day 1, so counter-claiming with no information makes it incredibly hard to convince everyone to trust you.

As long as the outcome for this day is coming out ok. Seeing as everybody is in agreement that mattgoku was [2], with the killing action, why pull focus away and confuse everyone who are about to lynch the person you wanted to lynch.

Another reason could be that the mafia have taken shu's redirection and nobody would be none the wiser.
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